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Runs a Gibbs sampler to estimate latent factor trajectories U, spline coefficients gamma, loadings beta, observation/model precisions phiep, and factor precisions phiet.

Usage

BFACT(
  Y,
  z,
  T,
  T1,
  T2,
  H,
  iseed,
  J,
  nsim,
  mga = 0.1,
  mbe = 0.1,
  aep = 0.1,
  bep = 0.1,
  aet = 0.1,
  bet = 0.1,
  a1 = 3,
  a2 = 3
)

Arguments

Y

Numeric matrix T x m of model outputs (each column a model series).

z

Numeric vector of observed anomalies for years T1:T2.

T

Integer total number of time points.

T1, T2

Integers giving the observation window indices (1 ≤ T1 ≤ T2 ≤ T).

H

Integer number of latent factors.

iseed

Integer RNG seed for reproducibility.

J

Integer number of spline basis functions (natural splines via splines::ns).

nsim

Integer number of posterior draws.

mga

Prior precision (ridge) for spline coefficients gamma. Default 0.1.

mbe

Prior precision (ridge) for loadings beta. Default 0.1.

aep

Gamma shape for observation/model precisions phiep. Default 0.1.

bep

Gamma rate for observation/model precisions phiep. Default 0.1.

aet

Gamma shape for factor precisions phiet. Default 0.1.

bet

Gamma rate for factor precisions phiet. Default 0.1.

a1

Gamma shape for shrinkage delta_1. Default 3.

a2

Gamma shape for shrinkage delta_>=2. Default 3.

Value

A list with elements: X, ysim, U_samples, beta_samples, gamma_samples